Alhambra Research

Monthly Macro Monitor – September 2020

By |2020-09-28T19:14:41-04:00September 28th, 2020|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

The economic data over the last month continued to improve but the breadth of improvement has narrowed. Additionally, while most of the economic data series are still improving, the rate of change, as Jeff pointed out recently, has slowed. I guess that isn't that surprising as the initial phase of the recovery comes to an end. 2nd quarter was a [...]

Uh Oh, The Dollar Has Caught A Bid

By |2020-09-23T19:34:15-04:00September 23rd, 2020|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Stocks|

Anyone who follows Alhambra knows that we keep an eye on the dollar. It is a very important part of our process of identifying the economic environment. A rising dollar, when combined with a falling rate of growth, can be a lethal combination. That was the situation in March and of course during the financial crisis of 2008. So the [...]

Monthly Market Monitor – August 2020

By |2020-09-06T22:20:12-04:00September 6th, 2020|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Many of the weak dollar trends I noted in June’s update have moderated - even as the dollar has weakened further. US stocks surged over the last month, with growth indices leaving their value counterparts in the dust…again. About the only exception on the equity side was China, which outperformed for much the same reason as US growth – technology [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2020

By |2020-08-20T15:33:20-04:00August 20th, 2020|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

One of the advantages we enjoy here at Alhambra is the opportunity to interact with a lot of investors. We talk to hundreds of individual investors on a monthly basis, giving us a front-row seat to everyone’s fear and greed. Economic data tells us about the past, which isn’t particularly useful for investors focused on the future. Sentiment, though, is [...]

SPECIAL REPORT: Follow The Money – Volume 5

By |2020-08-10T13:26:33-04:00August 10th, 2020|Alhambra Research, Special Reports|

If the recession was the first "shoe to drop", what's the second...or third? The shock of the self-inflicted COVID recession is behind us. What we're all wondering now is what comes next? Will the economy recover to its previous state? Something better? Something worse? That will be determined by the second and third-order effects and they are already starting. Our?Special [...]

Monthly Market Monitor – July 2020

By |2020-07-06T10:57:52-04:00July 6th, 2020|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Most Long-Term Trends Have Not Changed A lot has changed over the last 4 months since the COVID virus started to impact the global economy. Asia was infected first with China at ground zero. Their economy succumbed first with a large part of the country shut down to a degree that can only be accomplished in an authoritarian regime. The [...]

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